With the 2024 U.S. presidential election now behind us, President-elect Donald Trump’s return to the White House for a second term has sparked questions about what might be next. In particular, Trump’s more isolationist approach to global relations could significantly reshape the international landscape. This topic was explored the day after election day during the 29th European Academic Forum, where Cleveland State’s Professors Milena Sterio and John Plecnik joined Professors Matej Avbelj and Jernej Letnar Cernic from New University in Slovenia to discuss the potential implications of Trump’s presidency.
While Trump’s victory caught many by surprise, the panelists noted that his campaign’s focus on economic issues and immigration struck a chord with voters, particularly in rural areas. Professor Sterio highlighted the campaign’s emphasis on rising food and gas prices, which were framed as being better under Trump’s previous administration. Additionally, criticisms of Biden’s immigration policies helped give Trump a significant edge over Vice President Kamala Harris.
Professor Plecnik added that Trump’s supporters are often undercounted in polls, contributing to unexpected outcomes like the one we saw in this election. New University’s Professor Avbelj observed that political and economic elites underestimated Trump’s appeal, particularly his ability to connect with working- and middle-class voters.
The panelists explored how Trump’s foreign policy might influence global relations, particularly with Europe and Slovenia. Professors Sterio and Plecnik agreed that relations with Slovenia and the U.S. are unlikely to change much, given the First Lady Melania Trump’s Slovenian heritage. However, Trump’s isolationist views could strain ties with the European Union, especially on defense and trade issues. Professor Avbelj suggested that Europe might face increased economic protectionism under Trump, which could push the EU to seek alternative trade partners such as China.
Trump’s stance on NATO could also have major implications. Professor Sterio and Cernic emphasized that Trump has often criticized the U.S.’s financial contributions to NATO, which could impact ongoing support for Ukraine. While Trump has stated he intends to negotiate a resolution to the Ukraine conflict, even boasting he will have it done before coming into office, Professor Plecnik speculated that Russian President Vladimir Putin might be wary of Trump, potentially shifting Russia’s stance in negotiations. Regarding the ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict, the panelists generally agreed that U.S. policy would likely remain consistent given the bipartisan support for Israel. However, Trump’s personal relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could help foster more stability in the region.
Another key theme of the discussion was the shift in political discourse. Professor Avbelj highlighted the erosion of civility in politics, exacerbated by the rise of social media. Professor Plecnik added that this trend extends beyond candidates, with stakeholders and voters contributing to an increasingly polarized environment. The panelists also examined a realignment of political ideologies within the United States. Professor Plecnik observed that Trump’s populist movement has reframed the Republican Party as a voice for the working- and middle-class voters, while wealthier elites now align more closely with Democrats. Professor Avbelj suggested this trend reflects broader societal changes rather than merely evolving party platforms.
The discussion concluded with thoughts on what Trump’s presidency might mean for the U.S. economy. Professor Sterio raised doubts on Trump’s ability to mitigate the national debt, citing his history of business bankruptcies. Professor Avbelj countered that as long as the U.S. dollar remains the world’s reserve currency, the debt should remain manageable. As the world anticipates another Trump presidency, the panelists agreed that the implications will likely be profound. Whether these changes lead to progress or further polarization remains to be seen.
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