Since former President Donald J. Trump’s election in 2016, in which Republicans kept control of both chambers of Congress, the Grand Old Party has experienced a series of stunning defeats. Democrats took back the House in 2018, took the White House and both chambers of Congress in 2020, and held the Senate while only barely losing the House in 2022. During this time, President Trump has eagerly touted the power of his endorsement. This begs the question: is President Trump bad at politics? Let's look at recent history to try and answer this question.
One of Trump's early hiccups was nominating Alabama Senator Jeff Sessions for Attorney General, opening up a seat in deep-red Alabama. Replacing a Republican in ruby-red Alabama should be simple. However, President Trump backed Roy Moore, a candidate with a sordid history. Alabamans rejected Moore and ultimately elected Democrat Doug Jones in 2017. Trump would go on to fire Sessions as A.G., purportedly over loyalty issues.
Perhaps this was just a bit of bad luck, but something similar happened the following year in Arizona. The feud between Arizona Senator John McCain and President Trump is well documented, but Trump also aimed his ire at Arizona’s junior Senator, Jeff Flake, frequently broadcasting his desire for someone to primary Flake. 2018 started with two Republican Senators representing Arizona. Thanks in part to President Trump’s meddling, by 2020 both slots would be filled by Democrats. In fact, the entire state flipped blue with the 2020 electoral votes going to President Joe Biden.
Georgia saw similar results. The state electorally went blue in 2020, but both Senate races went to a runoff. In the lead up to the runoff, President Trump loudly made allegations of voter fraud, arguably discouraging Georgia Republicans from voting. Senator David Perdue would lose the runoff by 1.2 % and Senator Kelly Loeffler would lose by 2%.
Trump supporters can excuse away these Trump endorsed losses, but the 2022 midterm elections give the most clear data-driven picture of Trump’s political acumen. The standouts were Herschel Walker in Georgia, J.D. Vance in Ohio, and Mehmet "Dr. Oz" Oz in Pennsylvania. Notably, the governors in both Ohio and in Georgia have both had public spats with former President Trump.
Beginning in Georgia, Walker turned into a political nightmare with mental illness, a messy divorce and other ugly allegations hurting him in the polls. He ultimately lost by 2.8 % whereas moderate Republican Brian Kemp won the governorship by over 8 points, creating a 10+ point differential between a Trump choice and a standard Republican. Of note, Kemp's primary challenger was former Senator David Perdue - another Trump-backed loyalist candidate.
In Ohio, J.D. Vance won his Senatorial election by 6 points. This sounds good, but contrast that with Mike DeWine’s gubernatorial election where he won by over 20%, making this differential over 14 points.
Lastly, we look to Pennsylvania, where Trump got his endorsed candidates in the running for both Governor and U.S. Senate. Dr. Oz would lose his bid by over 4 points to John Fetterman, despite Fetterman suffering a severe stroke pre-election. This defeat was not to be outdone by Trump’s choice for Governor, Doug Mastriano, who lost by a whopping 14 points.
This rejection of Trump-endorsed candidates shows that voters were not rejecting the Republican brand as a whole, but Trump's “MAGA” brand of Republicans. This coupled with headwinds against conservatives regarding the overturning of Roe v. Wade caused a smaller victory for Republicans in the 2022 midterms than expected. When Republicans retook the House of Representatives, they scored most of their victories in places like Florida and New York, where Trump had little to do with candidate choice.
So, is this all about loyalty to Trump? Or is Trump playing an expensive long game with the ultimate goal of reshaping the Republican Party? Likely both. Time will tell whether Donald J. Trump will be successful in the “game” of politics. In a few short days, we will get more data on this. I know I’m excited.
Comments