Despite the growing strength of Republicans in Ohio in recent years, Ohio politics has, in some ways, remained fairly moderate. That could change after this year.
First, Ohio may lose its only statewide non-judicial Democratic elected official: Senator Sherrod Brown. Brown is being challenged for reelection by Bernie Moreno, the Donald Trump-endorsed Republican Senate nominee who handily defeated State Senator Matt Dolan and Secretary of State Frank LaRose in the 2024 Republican primary.
Since 2006, Brown has been a bulwark of Ohio Democratic Party strength, earning solid support from working class Ohioans by campaigning on upholding the Dignity of Work and advocating for pro-labor policies. In 2018, while the rest of the Democratic ticket in Ohio went down in defeat, Brown won reelection by 7%.
However, Brown is nevertheless vulnerable in 2024. Ohio has solidified its status as a red state, voting for Donald Trump by 8% in 2020 and, in 2022, electing Senate candidate J. D. Vance by 7% and reelecting Governor Mike DeWine by 25%. Additionally, the partisan environment may be worse for Brown in 2024 than in 2018. In 2018, Democrats generally overperformed across the country, owing in large part to the midterm backlash against President Trump. In 2024, however, Trump will be back on the ballot, likely boosting Republican turnout (especially in Ohio). Assuming history repeats and Trump carries Ohio in 2024, Brown will have to win hundreds of thousands of crossover Trump votes to be reelected. Brown has proven resilient in the past, but this will likely be one of the toughest elections of his career.
Next, Ohio’s Supreme Court may be significantly reconstituted. The Ohio Supreme Court has, for years, been a moderating influence on Ohio politics, particularly on the issue of partisan gerrymandering. This was, in part, due to the fact that Ohio Supreme Court elections were nonpartisan, allowing Democratic candidates to overperform and control nearly half of the bench.
That changed in 2021, when Republicans passed a law requiring judicial candidates to run with party labels. The effects were shown in the 2022 election, where two incumbent Republicans won by double-digit margins and the Republicans easily carried the election for Chief Justice over well-known incumbent Democratic Associate Justice Jennifer Brunner.
The 2024 election could have more sweeping results. Along with an election for Republican Joe Deters’ seat (Lisa Forbes is his Democratic challenger), two incumbent Democratic justices—Melody Stewart and Michael Donnelly (both CSU Law alumni)—are up for reelection. Strapped with a party label for the first time, their seats are precarious at best. If one or both of these candidates lose reelection, the Ohio Supreme Court could become much more partisan and less likely to push back on the actions of the state house.
That brings us to the General Assembly, control of which hangs on a single vote.
In a sense, Ohio state politics over the last several years have broken into a de facto three party system. This dates back at least to the election of Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder in 2019, and continued with the election of Speaker Jason Stephens in 2023. Both Republican Speakers were elected with the support of Democrats, whose support they won by promising to rein in the party’s right wing. By splitting off a moderate faction from the Republican supermajority, this paradigm has curbed the ambitions of far-right Republican leaders and slowed the progress of conservative legislation (or, perhaps more accurately, slowed the progress of legislation in general—2023 was the least productive year for the Ohio legislature since 1955).
Stephens’ election was particularly divisive. A majority of the Republican caucus supported Derek Merrin, the conservative lead sponsor of the 2019 Heartbeat Bill. Stephens, however, defeated Merrin by enlisting the support of the entire Democratic caucus and 22 Republicans. This was extremely controversial. The Ohio Republican Party censured Stephens’ voters, whom Merrin voters started calling the “Blue 22.” Stephens supporters responded by calling their critics the “CryBaby Caucus.”
The result of the Stephens “coup,” as his opponents called it, was to chart a more moderate course, particularly with regards to issues around labor and education. Derek Merrin wanted to pursue Right to Work and vastly expand school vouchers, both of which are strongly opposed by Ohio unions and Democrats. Stephens promised to, among other things, make sure they did not happen.
There are limits to this “moderation,” of course. On some issues, particularly social issues like trans rights and abortion, Ohio has often veered to the right. Unlike opposing Right to Work and maintaining public schools, these issues lack powerful supporters like teachers unions, making it easier for the Republican leadership to make peace with the right wing by “letting the baby have its bottle.”
Under Householder, Ohio passed the Heartbeat Bill which was, at the time, one of the most draconian anti-abortion laws in the country. Under Stephens, Ohio passed House Bill 68, severely restricting access to gender affirming care for trans youth. Stephens also signed off on the disastrous misadventure of Issue 1 in August, 2023, which would have raised the threshold for constitutional ballot initiatives to 60% (with the goal of blocking the Reproductive Freedom Amendment set to be on the November ballot). Stephens, who initially opposed the proposal and promised Democrats he would block it, ultimately voted to place it on the ballot. The issue, of course, failed decisively.
Nevertheless, in other key areas, Ohio’s politics have remained fairly moderate. Plans to slash public school funding, implement Right to Work, end the income tax, and other right-wing initiatives have been dead on arrival in Stephens’ State House.
However, even these mild compromises may soon be scrapped. Stephens will face a new challenger in 2025. This time, it will not be Merrin, who is leaving the State House to run for Congress (with Donald Trump’s endorsement, he won the 2024 primary election to challenge Democratic Representative Marcy Kaptur). Instead, Stephens will be challenged by State Senate President Matt Huffman, who is term-limited out of the Senate and moving to the State House in 2025.
Huffman has assumed Merrin’s place as the tribune of the right, lambasting Stephens for betraying his party and capitulating to the Democrats. He supports ending the state income tax, vastly expanding school vouchers, re-litigating the August 2023 election, and fighting implementation of the voter-backed Reproductive Freedom Amendment and legalization of marijuana.
The 2024 primary unfolded as a well-reported proxy battle between Stephens and Huffman. Eleven of the “Blue 22” Stephens supporters were up for reelection, and several of them were challenged by Huffman-endorsed candidates. The Koch brothers-founded conservative dark money group Americans For Prosperity also got involved, spending millions to back challengers to the Stephens candidates and send out attack mailers calling Stephens supporters puppets of Joe Biden and the Democratic Party.
Because Stephens won the Speakership on a margin of 54-45, he could afford to lose four supporters. On primary night, he lost exactly four: Sara Carruthers, Brett Hilyer, Gail Pavliga, and Jon Cross.
Some in the media have declared victory for Stephens. News 5 Cleveland confidently reported “Ohio House Speaker Jason Stephens and allies mostly victorious in primary election, likely keeping gavel.”
However, I would argue that the results are far more ambiguous. To keep his post, Stephens will also need to have the same number of Democratic votes that he had in 2023. If any Democrats lose reelection in 2024 (which, given partisan trends in Ohio, is certainly possible), then Stephens will dip below the number of votes he needs. There is also no guarantee that he will keep every one of his Republican supporters. Faced with well-funded primary challengers, censure from the Ohio GOP, and pressure from powerful groups like Americans For Prosperity, any one of his supporters could decide that it’s no longer worth it to buck the party line. Or, for that matter, any one of the Democratic representatives could decide it’s not worth voting for a Republican who broke his promise and put Issue 1 on the ballot.
After the 2024 primaries, the direction of Ohio politics is deeply uncertain. Whether the state continues to chart a moderate course on issues like labor, public education, taxation, and democracy, or veers rightward on more than social issues, depends on a single vote in the State House.
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